Tropical Low with High Chance of Becoming Cyclone Looms Off North Queensland Coast
Residents in North Queensland are bracing for damaging winds, heavy rain, and flooding between Cairns and Townsville, as a tropical low likely to intensify into a cyclone lingers off the coast. The Bureau of Meteorology said tropical low 12U has a 50-60% chance of developing into a category one cyclone named Koji by 4 p.m. on Saturday, with landfall expected over Townsville early on Sunday morning.
The system is forecast to bring damaging winds of up to 100 kilometers per hour and heavy rain to already saturated catchments, increasing the risk of flash and riverine flooding. Tides are likely to be higher than normal between Port Douglas and Airlie Beach over the weekend but should not exceed the highest tide of the year.
Bureau of Meteorology forecaster Morgan Pumpa said the system had the potential to dump significant amounts of rain before it made landfall. "We are looking at 150 to 200 millimeters with some isolated falls of around 350mm possible as well," she said. "Our warning zone is currently from Port Douglass to Tully, including Cairns and Innisfail, and our watch zone is from Tully to Airlie Beach, including Townsville and Bowen as well. We are looking at a significant event on Saturday and through to Sunday."
Major flooding is possible at Giru from late Saturday, with heavy to locally intense rainfall forecast across the Haughton River catchment throughout the day. The Herbert River catchment is also expected to see heavy rainfall, which could cause major flooding along the lower Herbert catchment from early Sunday.
Palm Island, sitting just to the side of the storm's expected path, 65 kilometers north of Townsville, is bracing for impact. Its roughly 4,000 residents were cut off from the mainland on Friday when flights and ferries were canceled. Several high-risk residents were evacuated from the island by Townsville Hospital and Health Service on Thursday and Friday.
Palm Island Aboriginal Shire Council Mayor Alf Lacey said people who lived in family camps had been encouraged to stay in homes in the township until the weather settled. "We're a resilient bunch of people here, and we've been through quite a number of these events before," he said. "When the community needs to step up, it steps up."
Palm Island resident Valmae Doomadgee said the wind started picking up on the island on Friday, but residents were not too concerned. "[The kids] are definitely aware there is a cyclone coming," she said. "No one is worried about the weather at the moment; they are worried about fishing—the fishing has been good."
Back on the mainland, communities from Hope Vale to Ayr have been preparing for strong winds and heavy-to-intense rainfall. Tully social worker Reegan Davis said the town was well rehearsed in disasters, but some who went through flooding nearly a year ago were anxious about what may be in store. "They are very much still in the recovery phase, and some of them are still not back in their homes yet," she said. Ms. David also noted that many people, particularly in rural areas, had been living in caravans or insecure dwellings. Services like Centacare had been helping and encouraging homeless locals to find places to stay with family and friends or through support services.
Forty kilometers south at Cardwell, longtime resident Dianne Bach spent the week preparing after her property flooded for the first time less than 12 months ago. "We never dreamt it would come indoors like it did... [we've been home] probably about five weeks now, still a long way from being sorted but we're getting there," she said. With too many doors and openings around her property, sandbags aren't an option for Mrs. Bach. She said her husband John has been working hard to build flood gates instead. "They won't be done in time... it's nervy as of right now. We've been putting things up in case it floods, tying stuff down all day," she said.
Farmers in the region are also in the firing line. North Queensland's agricultural community is still recovering from last summer. Ingham region sugar cane farmer Robert Lyon said he was concerned that strong winds would snap his cane and that flooding would wash away repairs made after last summer's flood. "It's been 11 months since that major flooding disaster happened," he said. "Everyone's still in a point of recovery... they'll be in recovery for quite some time to get things repaired. Back-to-back repairs, back-to-back finding the bank in the back pocket." Mr. Lyon also noted that the weather would take a significant toll on some locals' mental health. "There will be some very concerned people, businesses, growers, and residents," he said. "A lot of growers won't show their mental issues; they'll bottle it up, and it hurts."
Water restrictions have been imposed in Cairns due to heavy rainfall. Residents have been urged to restrict water usage to drinking, cooking, and washing only, with level 4 water restrictions now in place. Deputy Mayor Brett Olds said this was a precautionary measure. He explained that in the 72 reservoirs in Cairns, there was usually only enough water for a few days' supply, and sediment stirred up by heavy rainfall could force treatment centers to shut down. "You can't put mud through our filters," he said. Mr. Olds added that while the treatment centers were currently operational, more rain could mean they were turned off. "We want to extend as long as we can, the time we have for potable water," he said.
