In the heart of Greater Manchester, a political battleground is being forged, with the by-election for Gorton and Denton at its center. This three-way contest is a 'pollster's nightmare', as the stakes are high and the outcome is far from certain. The story unfolds with Nigel Farage, the enigmatic figure of Reform UK, cutting the ribbon at their by-election headquarters, while nearby, Labour's candidate, Angeliki Stogia, sits tearfully in a cafe, her emotions raw and her voice breaking. For Stogia, this is personal, fueled by her anger towards Farage's party and their divisive rhetoric.
The political landscape in Gorton and Denton is complex. Labour, once dominant, now faces a formidable challenge from the Green Party, who are the bookies' favorites. The retirement of Andrew Gwynne, a key Labour figure, has left a void, and the party is grappling with a crisis over Peter Mandelson's ties to Jeffrey Epstein. A defeat on February 26th could spell further calls for the prime minister's resignation.
The Green Party, led by the charismatic Hannah Spencer, a 34-year-old plumber, has captured the imagination of the locals. Spencer, a rising star in the party, is a marked contrast to Reform UK's Matt Goodwin, an academic turned GB News polemicist. The Greens' campaign, however, is not without controversy, as they have been accused of 'lying' to the public with misleading charts in their leaflets.
The key to understanding this by-election lies in the demographics. For every vote on the Farage-friendly Denton side, there are two votes on the larger, more diverse, and left-leaning Manchester side. In 2024, nearly 80% of the constituency backed a party on the left, making it a challenge for Reform UK to win without splitting the Labour vote.
The Reform UK campaign, led by Goodwin, is seen as a 'show' by Stogia, who believes it benefits from a split vote on the left. In the 2024 Runcorn and Helsby by-election, a similar scenario allowed Farage's party to win by six votes. The task for Reform UK is daunting, as they have no councillors in the constituency and finished 14,000 votes behind Labour in 2024.
Despite their challenges, the Reform UK campaigners are enthusiastic, with volunteers traveling from far-flung places like Birmingham, Barnsley, and Belper. Their candidate, Hannah Spencer, is approaching local fame, pounding the streets with her rescue greyhounds and focusing on issues like the cost of living, housing, and crime.
The Labour Party, while acknowledging Spencer's popularity, remains adamant that only it can beat Reform UK. However, the Greens are emerging as a significant electoral force in Labour's backyard, with support from groups like George Galloway's Workers Party and Jeremy Corbyn's Your Party. The Muslim Vote, a campaign group, is also backing Spencer, reflecting the constituency's diverse demographics.
The political landscape in Gorton and Denton is further complicated by the anger over Gaza, which is not as vociferous against Labour as it was in 2024. Local Labour party members, like Ghulam Ghaus, plan to vote for the party out of familiarity rather than enthusiasm. Meanwhile, Catherine O'Connor, a retired cleaner, is switching to the Green Party, citing dissatisfaction with Labour's performance.
In the end, the by-election in Gorton and Denton is a 'pollster's nightmare', with three parties in the running and each capable of telling a plausible story about their potential victory. The outcome will shape the political landscape in this diverse and pivotal region.
